The determinant long cycles that drive Fisher’s thesis were primarily, if not all, demographics catalysed by external events, not societal in nature; plaques, sunspot or volcanic caused major weather changes that decimated population for instance. The current cycle would appear to be on track for a population driven partial extermination event, but first comes the price pressures, then the social upheavals and revolutions.
The depopulation technocrats certainly understand the threat to their rule from commodity and food price pressures; starvation has always proven a strong spark to ignite violent revolutions against the established order. Yet regardless of the risk of mentioning the great swearwords of Sir Templeton, “this time is different”, but here goes, this time is different. This time humanity is on a path to its own civilizational self-extinction.
This time society itself has placed its own population controls driven perhaps by some self-destructive clock within us that has, at first, placed the biological propensity to reproduce not only in abeyance, but perhaps permanently in the deep freeze. Civilization, for whatever reason that is not environmental, sorry Al Gore, is on a path over the next century to depopulate itself, all without the help of unseen forces or even man made cataclysms; of course not including a nice nuclear winter. We simply have decided that we don’t think we should be around in a few hundred years and so have stopped reproducing at the rate sufficient to replace us, let alone to add to our earthly footprint. Yes, the developing world is still rather fecund, but they too are seeing fertility plummet and if to follow in the West’s early path for civilizational morbidity
Charles Hugh Smith. Always brilliant and a must read.